Currency traders showed a fairly muted reaction to the Euro-Zone consumer price report even as the core rate of inflation topped forecasts in April, and the bullish sentiment underlying the single-currency may continue to deteriorate over the near-term as the central bank softens its hawkish outlook for inflation. The EUR/USD pared the overnight advance to 1.4147 as European Central Bank board member Ewald Nowotny sees inflation falling back towards the 2% target in 2012, and gave back the early-morning rally to 1.4152 to maintain the narrow downward trending chancel carried over from earlier this month. As market participants speculate Greece to restructure its debt, the EU will certainly have to step up its efforts to address the sovereign debt crisis, and currency traders will certainly turn their focus to the two-day meeting in Brussels as euro-area finance ministers attempt to finalize the European Stability Mechanism.
However, the arrest of International Monetary Fund Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn appears to have rattled market sentiment as the region continues to seek foreign aid, and the lack of urgency to contain the risk for contagion will continue to dampen demands for the single-currency as the European periphery face record-high financing costs. In turn, the Governing Council may have little choice but to delay its exit strategy further and the EUR/USD looks poised to test 1.4000 in the coming days as it searches for support. According to Credit Suisse overnight index swaps, market participants are still pricing a zero percent chance for a 25bp rate hike in June, but see borrowing costs in Europe increasing by nearly 100bp over the next 12-months as growth and inflation gather pace.
The British Pound bounced back from a low of 1.6161 coming into the North American trade, and the small rebound in the GBP/USD may gather pace over the next 24-hours of trading as the headline reading for inflation is expected to grow at a faster pace April. As the Bank of England sees consumer prices hitting an annualized 5.0% this year, the central bank is likely to draw up a hawkish tone in its policy meeting minutes which are due out on Wednesday, and currency traders will surely keep a close eye on the vote count as Governor Mervyn King changes his tune for future policy. If we see a growing shift within the MPC, a 5-4 split within the committee should spark a bullish reaction in the British Pound, but the majority may look to carry out their wait-and-see approach for most of 2011 given the ongoing weakness within the real economy. As a result, the GBP/USD may trend sideways throughout the beginning of the week, but comments from the central bank is likely to dictate future price action for the sterling as investors weigh the prospects for future policy.
The U.S. dollar continued to face mixed price action against its major counterparts, but the reserve currency may regain its footing during the North American trade as investors continue to scale back their appetite for risk. As market participants show a subdued reaction to the Empire manufacturing report, risk sentiment should dictate price action across the currency market, and the greenback should benefit from safe-haven slows as equity futures point to a lower open for the U.S. market.
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