The blessed & most beautiful month is near and what better time to prepare for it than right now. Some of us deceive ourselves into thinking that when Ramadan comes we will suddenly change and worship Allah night and day but we are only decieving ourselves in thinking like this.
The Sahaaba used to prepare for Ramadan six months in advance. So if we really want to make the best of this Ramadan then we need to prepare for it now!
This may be our last Ramadan for life is so uncertain. Then there is NO doubt that we must make the best of it for the Reward of EVERY good act in the month of Ramadan is multiplied many times over:
The Prophet (Sallallahu Alaihi Wasallam) said: “Whoever draws near to Allah during it (Ramadan) with a single characteristic from the characteristics of (voluntary) goodness, he is like whoever performs an obligatory act in other times. And whoever performs an obligatory act during it, he is like whoever performed seventy obligatory acts in other times.” (Sahih Ibn Khuzaymah, no. 1887)
If there was a 75% sale on in the shops surely people would go crazy and even cue all night outside in order to be the first in the store to take advantage of this special offer. So in the same way why should we not take advantage of the immense rewards that are available in Ramadan?
The best way we can make the best of this Ramadan and grab the immense rewards that are available is to prepare for it NOW.
The following are 10 ways in which we can prepare for this beautiful month starting from NOW:
1. Voluntary Fasts
What better way of preparing ourselves to fast for 30 consecutive days in Ramadan than to fast the voluntary fasts.
Fasting Monday and Thursday:
Abu Hurairah reported that the most the Prophet, (Sallallahu Alaihi Wasalam) would fast would be Monday and Thursday. He was asked about that and he said: “The deeds of people are presented to Allah on every Monday and Thursday. Allah forgives every Muslim except for those who are deserting each other." He says: "leave them for later”. (Ahmad; Hasan)
Another is to fast the white days (13, 14 & 15th of each Islamic month):
Abu Tharr Al-Ghefari said: “The Messenger of Allah (Sallallahu Alaihi Wasallam) said "O Abu Tharr! If you fast three days of every month, then fast the 13th, the 14th and the 15th [these are call the al-ayaam al-beedh, the white days]". (Ahmad, an-Nasaa'i & at-Tirmithi; Sahih)
Therefore we should fast these days in order to prepare for the fasting of Ramadan and even after Ramadan we should continue to do so for fasting will intercede for us on the day of judgement:
Rasulallah (Salallahu Alaihi Wasallam) said: "Fasting and the Qur’an will intercede for the slave on the Day of Resurrection. Fasting will say: “O My Rabb! I prevented him from food and desires, so accept my intercession for him.’ And the Qur’an will say: “I prevented him from sleep during the night, so accept my intercession for him.’ He (Sallallahu `Alaihi Wasallam) said: ‘And they will (be allowed to) intercede.’” (Ahmad, at-Tabarani, Al-Hakim, Sahih)
2. Reciting Qur’an
Allah the exalted says:
“The month of Ramadan is the one in which the Quran was sent down, a guidance for mankind, clear proofs for the guidance, the Criterion; so whoever amongst you witnesses this month, let him fast it." (Surah al-Baqarah 2:185)
Ramadan was the month in which the Qur'an was first revealed so it is the month of the Qur'an. We should devote much of this blessed month reciting the Qur'an.
Az-Zuhri used to say upon the coming of Ramadan, “It is only about reciting the Qur’an and feeding the poor.”
Abdur-Raziq said, “When Ramadan came, Sufyan Ath-Thawri would give up all acts of (voluntary) worship and devote himself to the recitation of the Qur’an.”
But for many of us the Qur'an has gathered a lot of dust since the last time we picked it up.
As Ramadan is fast approaching we must blow off the dust and start to build a close relationship with the Qur'an for it will intercede with us on the day of judgement:
"Recite the Holy Qur’an as much as we can for It will come as an intercessor for its reciter’ on the Day of Judgement" (Muslim)
The Recitor will be in the company of Angels:
‘Aa'ishah related that the Prophet (Sallallahu Alaihi Wasallam) said: “Indeed the one who recites the Quran beautifully, smoothly, and precisely, will be in the company of the noble and obedient angels. As for the one who recites with difficulty, stammering or stumbling through its verses, then he will have twice that reward.” (Al-Bukhaari & Muslim)
There are Ten Rewards for Every Letter Recited from the Quran in normal times but in Ramadan these rewards are multiplied:
“Whoever reads a letter from the Book of Allaah, he will have a reward, and this reward will be multiplied by ten. I am not saying that 'Alif, Laam, Meem' (a combination of letters frequently mentioned in the Holy Quran) is a letter, rather I am saying that 'Alif' is a letter, 'Laam' is a letter and 'Meem' is a letter.” (At-Tirmithi)
So what better time for us to get into the habit of reciting the Qur'an than to begin to do so right now. We should recite the Qur'an with its meanings and try to understand and implement it into our daily lives.
We should set ourselves realistic targets for how much we should begin to recite each day for e.g. we will recite 1 or 2 pages a day, half a juz (chapter), or 1 juz etc. We should recite however much we can manage and then build up gradually.
3. Praying Superogatory (Nafil) prayers
In Ramadan every voluntary prayer carries the reward of a Fard prayer in normal times and there is nothing more rewarding than a Fard prayer so one can imagine the immense rewards that are available in Ramadan for every voluntary prayer we pray.
The Prophet (Sallallahu Alaihi Wasallam) said: “Whoever draws near to Allah during it (Ramadan) with a single characteristic from the characteristics of (voluntary) goodness, he is like whoever performs an obligatory act in other times. And whoever performs an obligatory act during it, he is like whoever performed seventy obligatory acts in other times.” (Sahih Ibn Khuzaymah, no. 1887)
In order for us to take advantage of these immense rewards we should start begin now by praying all of the daily Sunnah and Nafil prayers so by the time Ramadan comes we will already be in the habit of praying all of our Sunnah and Nafils and so we cna increase our voluntary prayers even more so during Ramadan. This would be difficult if we were not in the habit of praying Sunnah and Nafil prayers in normal times.
By increasing our voluntary worship we can gain closeness to Allah as well as the company of Rasulallah (Sallallahu Alaihi Wasallam) in Jannah:
Rabi'ah ibn Malik al-Aslami reported that the Prophet (Sallallahu Alaihi Wasallam) said: "Ask (anything)." Rabi'ah said: "I ask of you to be your companion in paradise." The Prophet (Sallallahu ALaihi Wasallam) said: "Or anything else?" Rabi'ah said: "That is it." The Prophet (Sallallahu Alaihi Wasallam) said to him: "Then help me by making many prostrations (i.e., supererogatory prayers)."
4. Making Dua
Many of us do not spend as much time as we should do in Dua. Even if we do we rush our dua and our hearts and minds are not present whilst supplicating to Allah.
Many of us rush our Dua's and our hearts are often not present whilst we are supplicating to Allah. Therefore we lose out on much of the benefits and blessings of Dua. We must give more attention to our Dua's and try to concentrate more and be more sincere in our Dua's imagining Allah watching us supplicate to him. We should humble ourselves making ourselves low and not worthy in front of Allah. We should try to cry if we can and have FULL hope that Allah will accept our Dua's if not in this world then in the hereafter.
Allah Almighty says in the Qur’an: "When my servants ask you concerning me, (tell them) I am indeed close (to them). I listen to the prayer of every suppliant when he calls on me."
The place of Dua is so honourable to Allah that the Prophet (Sallallahu AlaIhi Wasallim) said:
"Nothing is more honourable to Allah the Most High than Du`a." (Sahih al-Jami` no.5268).
It is the most excellent of worship:
He also said: "The most excellent worship is Du’a." (Sahih Al-Jami` no. 1133)
So let us get into the habit of making sincere Dua's from deep within our hearts and let us not be heedless when supplicating to Allah. What better time than now for us to get into the habit of making more intense and sincere Dua's. So by the time Ramadan arrives we would have already got into the habit of making the long, sincere and intense Dua's which will readily be accepted during this blessed month especially whilst we are fasting and in the latter part of the nights during Tahajjud.
It may help to make a list of what we should ask of Allah suring dua's which we can refer to as a reminder as this may help us to make our dua's longer and more sincere covering everything we want to ask of Allah.
5. Sincere Repentance
Ramadan is the month where we can gain mercy and forgiveness from Allah for all of our sins past and present.
We should know that Allah is most merciful and most forgiving and loves to forgive:
Allah says: O son of Adam, if your sins were to reach the clouds of the sky and you would then seek My forgiveness, I would forgive you.
When a person sins and then sincerely turns to Allah for forgiveness, one will find Allah ready to accept his repentance and to forgive him, as this verse indicates: And whoever does a wrong or wrongs himself, but then seeks forgiveness from Allah, he will find Allah forgiving and merciful. (Surat an-Nisaa 4:110)
Allah loves repentance and loves those who turn to him in repentance:
Truly Allah loves those who turn [to Him] in repentance, and He loves those who keep themselves in purity. (Qur'an 2:222)
Therefore we should get into the habit now of repenting to Allah so that in Ramadan we will make the best of repenting to Allah and continue to do so throughout everyday of our lives.
How unfortunate is a person who after the end of Ramadan does not gain any forgiveness of his sins from Allah but ends up piling more sins onto his account.
6. Generosity & Charity
Rasulallah (Sallallahu Alaihi Wasallam) became even more generous in Ramadan than he already was.
Ramadan is a time for generosity and giving. It is a time when we think about those who have less than us as well as thank Allah for everything he has given us. Ramadan is an honourable and blessed month, and the rewards for generosity are multiplied in it.
The Prophet (Sallallahu Alaihi Wassallam) said, “The best charity is that given in Ramadan.” (At-Tirmithi).
Prophet (Sallallahu Alaihi Wassallam) said, “He who feeds a fasting person will gain the same reward as he will, without decreasing from the fasting person’s rewards.” (Ahmad).
Therefore we should get into the habit of giving in charity now so by the time Ramadan arrives we would increase in our generosity, giving to those less fortunate than ourselves. We should give whatever we can afford as Allah looks at our intentions.
Surely in there hereafter we will regret that which we did not spend in the path of Allah.
7. Controlling the tongue
Ramadan is a time where we must control our desires (nafs) aswell as our tongues:
Rasulallah (Sallallahu Alaihi Wasallam) said: “Fasting is not (abstaining) from eating and drinking only, but also from vain speech and foul language. If one of you is being cursed or annoyed, he should say: ‘I am fasting, I am fasting.” (Ibn Khuzaimah, Ibn Hibban)
Therefore we must protect our tongue from vain speech and foul language. Protecting the tongue is preventing it from lying, back-biting, slander, tale-carrying, false speech and other things that have been forbidden in the Qur'an & Sunnah.
Those who control their tongues are of the best of Muslims:
The Prophet (Sallallahu Alaihi Wasallam) was asked: “Which Muslim is best?” He responded, “One who the other Muslims are safe from his tongue and his hand.” (Tirmidhi, #2504)
We must not deceive ourselves into thinking that by the time Ramadan comes we will all of a sudden break a lifetime habit and control our tongues. Again this is another big deception. We must start controlling our tongues now for we cannot for changing lifetime bad habits is not an overnight process.
So how can we begin to control our tongues? This can be done by "THINKING BEFORE SAYING ANYTHING". Not just talking without even thinking what we are going to say.
We must think before we speak and before saying anything we should think whether or not what we are going to say is going to please or displease Allah.
If we doubt that what we are about to say may anger or displease Allah then we should refrain from saying it. If we have nothing good to say then surely it is better NOT to say anything at all. Remember we WILL be accountable for everything we said in our lives so we MUST start taking responsiblity for what comes out of our mouths NOW otherwise we will regret it later when it is too late. Therefore we must get into the habit of "thinking before speaking".
So let us begin to control our tongues now so that by the time Ramadan comes we would have adopted good habits and would have been used to controlling our tongues and refraining from saying anything which may anger or displease Allah.
REMEMBER: If we do not protect our tongues then our fasts will be in vain:
Rasulallah (Sallallahu Alaihi Wasallam) said: “Allah does not need the fast of one who does not abandon false speech or acting according to his false speech.” (Sahih Bukhari)
8. Improving Character & manners
Rasulallah (Sallallahu Alaihi Wasallam) came to perfect the character of man and the best of this Ummah are those wioth the best of characters:
Rasulallah (Sallallahu Alahi Wasallam) used to say: "The best amongst you are those who have the best manners and character.” (al-Bukhari)
Rasulullah (Sallallahu Alaihi Wasallam) said: "There is none heavier in the scales of the Hereafter than good character (Tirmidhi & Abu Dawud).
Rasulallah (Sallallahu Alaihi Wasallam) also said: “The best loved by me and the nearest to me on the seats on the Day of Resurrection are those who have the best manners and conduct amongst you, who are intimate, are on good terms with others and are humble, and the most hated by me and who will be on the furthest seats from me are those who are talkative and arrogant." (Tirmidhi)
Again as with making any big change perfecting our character and manners cannot be done overnight but we must make a start now so that by the time Ramadan comes we would have gained momentum in making the necessery changes to our characters in order for us to be the best of this Ummah and those closest to Allah.
Surely if good character and manners are the heaviest on the scales then can you imagine how much more heavier they will be if we behave with good character and manners during Ramadan?
So let us strive to perfect our manners, character and conduct towards others and know that these good deeds will be of the heaviest on the scales and will enable us to reach the highest ranks of Jannah and the closest to Allah.
9. Moderation in eating
On the authority of Al-Miqdaam ibn Maadiy-Karib who said: I heard the Messenger of Allah saying: "No human ever filled a vessel worse than the stomach. Sufficient for any son of Adam are some morsels to keep his back straight. But if it must be, then one third for his food, one third for his drink and one third for his breath." (Ahmad, At-Tirmidhi, An-Nasaa’I, Ibn Majah )
Ibrahim al-Nakha’i, on of the teachers of Imam Abu Hanifa, may Allah have mercy on them both, mentioned: “The people ruined before you were done in by three characteristics: too much talking, too much eating, and too much sleeping.”
There is no doubt that excessive eating is not only a cause of many diseases but is also a major factor in stopping us from maximising our worship to Allah.
Ash-Shafi’I said: I have not filled myself in sixteen years because filling oneself makes the body heavy, removes clear understanding, induces sleep and makes one weak for worship.
Many of us fast during Ramadan fast during the day and after Iftaar make up for all the food we missed throughout the day by binge eating.
Surely this goes against the very purpose of Ramadan which is to be moderate in eating and to remember those who have less than us. How will we remember the unfortunate when we constantly over eating before and after our fasts?
By controlling what we eat now we will not only benefit our health in the short and long term but moderate eating will make us less heavier and enable us to maximise the amount of worship we do everyday during Ramadan and the rest of our lives.
Al-Hassan Al-Basri: “The test of Adam (AS) was food and it is your test until Qiyamah.
And, it used to be said: Whoever takes control of his stomach gets control of all good deeds.
And: Wisdom does not reside in a full stomach.
One day, Al-Hassan offered some food to his companion who said: I have eaten until I am no longer able to eat. To which Al-Hassan said: Subhaana Allah! Does a Muslim eat until he is no longer able to eat?
10. Implementing Sunnah's into Daily life
Following the Sunnah is a command from Allah:
"Say (O Muhammad to mankind): "If you (really) love Allah, then follow me (i.e. accept Islamic monotheism, follow the Quran and the Sunnah), Allah will love you and forgive you your sins. And Allah is Oft-Forgiving, Most Merciful." (Quran: 3:31)
Surely if we follow the Prophet (Sallallahu Alaihi Wasallam) in every aspect of our lives then everything that we do will become a worship to Allah, even going to the toilet, having a bath, dressing and undressing etc
Reviving the Sunnah into our daily lives:
Prophet (Sallallahu Alaihi Wasallam) said: “Whoever revives an aspect of my Sunnah that is forgotten after my death, he will have a reward equivalent to that of the people who follow him, without it detracting in the least from their reward.” (Tirmidhi)
The best habit we can ever have in our lives is to implement the Sunnah into EVERY aspect of our lives so that our whole life and everything we do during it can become a worship to Allah.
We can do this by gradually learning all of the Sunnah's and dua's of every aspect of our day waking up, leaving and entering the Masjid and house, dressing and undressing etc. So let us get into the habit right now of implementing every Sunnah's into our daily lives so by the time Ramadan comes we can continue to implement Sunnah's and gain even more rewards for them.
May Allah enable us to make the best of this Ramadan and make it a salvation for us in the Hereafter. Ameen
Thursday, June 30, 2011
Friday, June 24, 2011
What Should Be Malaysia’s Priority:
What Should Be Malaysia’s Priority:
The 13th General Election or
Preparing The Economy
For The Final Phase of The Global Tsunami,
Total Financial Meltdown?
By Matthias Chang
In my past postings to this website and my global Red Alerts, I had repeatedly
warned the Barisan Nasional Government not to hold any General Elections in
2011 as I had reasoned as far back as November 2010 that the final phase of the
Global Tsunami would hit us at the earliest by the end of the first quarter.
This has happened as forecasted and now in the last few days the crisis
has deepened to the extent that Central Banks the world over are in panic
mode. The beginning of the 3rd quarter, in July there will be formal
recognition by global creditors that the US has defaulted and the bond
markets will unravel. The US federal debt will eclipse the GDP for the first
time since World War II.
The tipping point will come when China panics. Presently, its leaders are putting
up a brave front. If truth be told, they are making preparations for intensive care
for their own survival.
This time round the crisis will be so devastating that what transpired in
2008/2009 would be considered mild in comparison.
This is common sense. If you are a banker / creditor and your principal borrower
is spending beyond its means, continue to borrow from other creditors to make
up the short fall and its assets mortgaged to secure its indebtedness continue to
depreciate to the extent that its value is less than the loan extended, what would
you do?
Even your threats to use the baseball bat will have no effect. USA is dead meat!
My critics will as usual condemn me as a rumour monger and a perpetual bear.
But where were they in 2006, 2007 and even in 2008 when the crisis was full
blown? They got it wrong. Bank Negara got it wrong. The Treasury got it wrong.
The financial community and financial think tanks got it wrong. So how can you
trust these pundits, these experts?
As the only analyst in Malaysia that got it right at the end of 2006 (and not by
hindsight, as evident by the numerous articles by these so-called experts postcrisis),
my critics have no legs to stand on to criticise me on my detail analysis
and as published in my book, “The Shadow Money-Lenders”.
My most conservative analysis at end of 2006 was that there were toxic assets
(junks, toilet papers) floating in the global shadow financial system to the value of
US$20 trillion. I still hold on to the view that the true value of the toxic assets is
approximately US$40 to US$50 trillion. Be that as it may, these figures are
meaningless to the Joe Six-packs and Main Street. It is beyond their imagination.
The toxic assets are still buried deep in the balance sheet of the Too Big To Fail
Banks, Hedge Funds and other major central banks.
A leading financial journal has estimated that “the world had about 30 trillion USD
in ghost assets” of which half went up in smoke between September 2008 and
March 2009. It is their considered opinion that the balance of this 15 trillion USD
ghost assets will “vanish” between July 2011 and January 2012. What I am trying
to say is that, all these fake assets that have been shoring up the credibility of the
global banks will have to be removed from the balance sheet and marked down
as junk, toilet paper.
This will be messy. Imagine banks’ balance sheets exposed as worthless!
The problem is compounded by the massive debts of the once mighty USA and
that of the United Kingdom and Japan. These three countries will cause more
problems than that of Greece, Spain, Portugal, Ireland and Italy (PIIGS)
combined. The former debts are in the US$ trillions (minimum US$ 20 trillion)
whereas the latter are in the US$ billions.
Food for thought - why would China expose her financial flanks and jeopardise
her exit strategy from moribund dollar assets and massive holdings of US$ toilet
papers when the only viable short-term solution / alternative is the Euro?
QEI, QEII and the inevitable QEIII in whatever form is a recipe for disaster, the
likes of which we have never witnessed before! The dynamite that will blow this
global casino to smithereens will be the trillions of US toilet papers (digital or
otherwise) that have flooded the financial system.
And when 100 or more of the major US cities default in the 2nd half of 2011, there
will be blood and social upheaval on Main Street.
US$ asset holders will suffer massive heart attacks.
Yet, I have not seen any pre-emptive measures taken by the Barisan Nasional
Federal Government and for that matter the Pakatan Rakyat State Governments
to prepare the country for this unprecedented financial upheaval. All are too
occupied to retain and to seize more power.
The country is in a state of delusion.
This is best reflected in the property sector of our economy. There is not one day,
that the major newspapers have not advertised glossy advertisements of new
housing and commercial developments, with link houses being priced over a
RM1 million!
July 2011 when viewed with hindsight in December 2012 will be remembered as
the peak in our property bubble. The leading players will suffer irreparable
financial losses and most would not be able to recover from the devastation.
Although belated attempts have been made to cool the consumer debt market,
especially the credit card market, the problem of consumer debts has been
glossed over and there are no viable solutions in sight. Middle-class civil servants
will be hit the hardest. They have been living beyond their means. The lower end
will also suffer, as they have been seduced to buy the additional car because of
cheap hire-purchase finance. But when the crisis descends upon them and they
cannot keep up with the installments, there will be massive repossessions.
Why is Malaysia in a state of denial? Why have the Federal and State
governments fail to adopt the correct strategy?
It is because they have misdiagnosed the economic and financial trends. The socalled
experts are of the view that we are in the “recovery trend” post the
financial crisis of 2008/2009.
But, the actual trend is that of a secular bear market that will last another decade
with occasional short-term “lifts” i.e. the trend is down and we have not reached
bottom. Anyone who is investing and borrowing for an uptrend will be
slaughtered. Anyone that is preserving his/her wealth (by consolidating and
deleveraging / getting out of the market) will survive, but barely.
Corporations on expansion mode are committing Hara Kiri as their cash flow
expectations will not be realised. They are all highly geared, enticed to borrow
and invest by sophisticated spin. The inevitable bankruptcy will follow with banks
screaming for bailouts as non-performing loans in the US$ billions pile up to the
ceiling, just when the shits hit the fan!
This is the stark reality.
If you need proof, just examine the price trends for Gold. In spite of massive
manipulation by central banks, BIS, IMF and global hedge funds to suppress the
price of gold, it has rebounded time after time and continued to gain strength
from short term lows. Gold will hit US$2,000 in the near future and will explode in
2012.
The Federal Reserve, the Bank of International Settlements (BIS), the IMF, the
World Bank and other central banks will collectively rig the currency and stock
markets to create false rallies but they won’t last and if you get sucked in by this
ploy, whatever remaining assets that you have will be wiped out.
So my message to all Malaysians – don’t be fooled by the political rhetoric and
hype by the politicians. Right now, their agenda is to survive and get re-elected
and continue to ride on the gravy train.
Go out and confront the politicians, be they from the Barisan Nasional or Pakatan
Rakyat. Demand from them answers to your queries and solutions to the coming
financial crisis.
Demand from them why till now they have not addressed the issues raised in this
Red Alert.
Demand from them whether there will be massive bailout of financial institutions
and the bloated and too big to fail corporations.
Demand from them solutions, effective solutions to the impending explosion of
food prices.
Do not be fooled by cheap promises and instant patronage by both sides of the
political divide. At the end of the day, it is about power. Trust me, I know from
experience. For them, the only issue is about power – to retain and grab more
power.
Now is the time when you can leverage your demands. Don’t sell your vote for
crumbs.
Now is not the time for elections. Now is the time when you should demand
pre-emptive actions to secure your future, your children’s future and your
grand-children’s future.
When they have the right answers, then and then only they deserve to be elected
and form the government.
If they don’t listen, kick their ass!
The 13th General Election or
Preparing The Economy
For The Final Phase of The Global Tsunami,
Total Financial Meltdown?
By Matthias Chang
In my past postings to this website and my global Red Alerts, I had repeatedly
warned the Barisan Nasional Government not to hold any General Elections in
2011 as I had reasoned as far back as November 2010 that the final phase of the
Global Tsunami would hit us at the earliest by the end of the first quarter.
This has happened as forecasted and now in the last few days the crisis
has deepened to the extent that Central Banks the world over are in panic
mode. The beginning of the 3rd quarter, in July there will be formal
recognition by global creditors that the US has defaulted and the bond
markets will unravel. The US federal debt will eclipse the GDP for the first
time since World War II.
The tipping point will come when China panics. Presently, its leaders are putting
up a brave front. If truth be told, they are making preparations for intensive care
for their own survival.
This time round the crisis will be so devastating that what transpired in
2008/2009 would be considered mild in comparison.
This is common sense. If you are a banker / creditor and your principal borrower
is spending beyond its means, continue to borrow from other creditors to make
up the short fall and its assets mortgaged to secure its indebtedness continue to
depreciate to the extent that its value is less than the loan extended, what would
you do?
Even your threats to use the baseball bat will have no effect. USA is dead meat!
My critics will as usual condemn me as a rumour monger and a perpetual bear.
But where were they in 2006, 2007 and even in 2008 when the crisis was full
blown? They got it wrong. Bank Negara got it wrong. The Treasury got it wrong.
The financial community and financial think tanks got it wrong. So how can you
trust these pundits, these experts?
As the only analyst in Malaysia that got it right at the end of 2006 (and not by
hindsight, as evident by the numerous articles by these so-called experts postcrisis),
my critics have no legs to stand on to criticise me on my detail analysis
and as published in my book, “The Shadow Money-Lenders”.
My most conservative analysis at end of 2006 was that there were toxic assets
(junks, toilet papers) floating in the global shadow financial system to the value of
US$20 trillion. I still hold on to the view that the true value of the toxic assets is
approximately US$40 to US$50 trillion. Be that as it may, these figures are
meaningless to the Joe Six-packs and Main Street. It is beyond their imagination.
The toxic assets are still buried deep in the balance sheet of the Too Big To Fail
Banks, Hedge Funds and other major central banks.
A leading financial journal has estimated that “the world had about 30 trillion USD
in ghost assets” of which half went up in smoke between September 2008 and
March 2009. It is their considered opinion that the balance of this 15 trillion USD
ghost assets will “vanish” between July 2011 and January 2012. What I am trying
to say is that, all these fake assets that have been shoring up the credibility of the
global banks will have to be removed from the balance sheet and marked down
as junk, toilet paper.
This will be messy. Imagine banks’ balance sheets exposed as worthless!
The problem is compounded by the massive debts of the once mighty USA and
that of the United Kingdom and Japan. These three countries will cause more
problems than that of Greece, Spain, Portugal, Ireland and Italy (PIIGS)
combined. The former debts are in the US$ trillions (minimum US$ 20 trillion)
whereas the latter are in the US$ billions.
Food for thought - why would China expose her financial flanks and jeopardise
her exit strategy from moribund dollar assets and massive holdings of US$ toilet
papers when the only viable short-term solution / alternative is the Euro?
QEI, QEII and the inevitable QEIII in whatever form is a recipe for disaster, the
likes of which we have never witnessed before! The dynamite that will blow this
global casino to smithereens will be the trillions of US toilet papers (digital or
otherwise) that have flooded the financial system.
And when 100 or more of the major US cities default in the 2nd half of 2011, there
will be blood and social upheaval on Main Street.
US$ asset holders will suffer massive heart attacks.
Yet, I have not seen any pre-emptive measures taken by the Barisan Nasional
Federal Government and for that matter the Pakatan Rakyat State Governments
to prepare the country for this unprecedented financial upheaval. All are too
occupied to retain and to seize more power.
The country is in a state of delusion.
This is best reflected in the property sector of our economy. There is not one day,
that the major newspapers have not advertised glossy advertisements of new
housing and commercial developments, with link houses being priced over a
RM1 million!
July 2011 when viewed with hindsight in December 2012 will be remembered as
the peak in our property bubble. The leading players will suffer irreparable
financial losses and most would not be able to recover from the devastation.
Although belated attempts have been made to cool the consumer debt market,
especially the credit card market, the problem of consumer debts has been
glossed over and there are no viable solutions in sight. Middle-class civil servants
will be hit the hardest. They have been living beyond their means. The lower end
will also suffer, as they have been seduced to buy the additional car because of
cheap hire-purchase finance. But when the crisis descends upon them and they
cannot keep up with the installments, there will be massive repossessions.
Why is Malaysia in a state of denial? Why have the Federal and State
governments fail to adopt the correct strategy?
It is because they have misdiagnosed the economic and financial trends. The socalled
experts are of the view that we are in the “recovery trend” post the
financial crisis of 2008/2009.
But, the actual trend is that of a secular bear market that will last another decade
with occasional short-term “lifts” i.e. the trend is down and we have not reached
bottom. Anyone who is investing and borrowing for an uptrend will be
slaughtered. Anyone that is preserving his/her wealth (by consolidating and
deleveraging / getting out of the market) will survive, but barely.
Corporations on expansion mode are committing Hara Kiri as their cash flow
expectations will not be realised. They are all highly geared, enticed to borrow
and invest by sophisticated spin. The inevitable bankruptcy will follow with banks
screaming for bailouts as non-performing loans in the US$ billions pile up to the
ceiling, just when the shits hit the fan!
This is the stark reality.
If you need proof, just examine the price trends for Gold. In spite of massive
manipulation by central banks, BIS, IMF and global hedge funds to suppress the
price of gold, it has rebounded time after time and continued to gain strength
from short term lows. Gold will hit US$2,000 in the near future and will explode in
2012.
The Federal Reserve, the Bank of International Settlements (BIS), the IMF, the
World Bank and other central banks will collectively rig the currency and stock
markets to create false rallies but they won’t last and if you get sucked in by this
ploy, whatever remaining assets that you have will be wiped out.
So my message to all Malaysians – don’t be fooled by the political rhetoric and
hype by the politicians. Right now, their agenda is to survive and get re-elected
and continue to ride on the gravy train.
Go out and confront the politicians, be they from the Barisan Nasional or Pakatan
Rakyat. Demand from them answers to your queries and solutions to the coming
financial crisis.
Demand from them why till now they have not addressed the issues raised in this
Red Alert.
Demand from them whether there will be massive bailout of financial institutions
and the bloated and too big to fail corporations.
Demand from them solutions, effective solutions to the impending explosion of
food prices.
Do not be fooled by cheap promises and instant patronage by both sides of the
political divide. At the end of the day, it is about power. Trust me, I know from
experience. For them, the only issue is about power – to retain and grab more
power.
Now is the time when you can leverage your demands. Don’t sell your vote for
crumbs.
Now is not the time for elections. Now is the time when you should demand
pre-emptive actions to secure your future, your children’s future and your
grand-children’s future.
When they have the right answers, then and then only they deserve to be elected
and form the government.
If they don’t listen, kick their ass!
Saturday, June 11, 2011
Canadian Dollar Drops as Crude Oil, Stocks Fall on Economic Slowdown Signs
Canada’s dollar fell against its U.S. counterpart on concern the global economy is slowing, even as a government report showed Canada’s jobless rate unexpectedly fell in May to the lowest level since January 2009.
The loonie, as the currency is known for the image of the aquatic bird on the C$1 coin, also dropped as oil, Canada’s biggest export, and stocks fell.
“Even though the number this morning was a little bit stronger, especially in the full-time component, I don’t think it changes what’s going on as far as everything else,” said David Love, a trader of interest-rate derivatives at Le Groupe Jitney Inc. in Montreal. “All our eyes are on the U.S. and what’s going on in Europe.”
The loonie depreciated 0.7 percent to 97.99 cents versus the U.S. currency at 5 p.m. in Toronto, from 97.30 cents yesterday. One Canadian dollar buys $1.0205.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index dropped 1.4 percent after adding 0.7 percent yesterday, its first gain after six consecutive days of losses. Crude oil for July delivery decreased 3 percent to $98.85 a barrel in New York after rising 1.2 percent yesterday.
“Canada’s ties to commodities certainly point to a weaker loonie, despite the stronger employment number this morning,” said Dean Popplewell, an analyst at the online currency-trading firm Oanda Corp. in Toronto.
Cross Trades
Among its most-traded counterparts, the Canadian dollar fell the most against the yen, dropping 0.8 percent. The loonie gained against the euro for a third consecutive day, advancing 0.4 percent to C$1.4059.
The loonie strengthened earlier today after a Statistics Canada report showed the nation’s unemployment rate fell to 7.4 percent last month from 7.6 percent in April.
Employers added 22,300 jobs last month after an increase of 58,300 in April. The median forecast of 27 economists in a Bloomberg News survey was for a gain of 20,000.
“From the economic side, I’m not seeing this as a huge jump, but it definitely is positive,” said C.J. Gavsie, managing director for foreign-exchange sales at Bank of Montreal’s BMO Capital Markets unit in Toronto.
Government bonds rose, pushing the yield on the 10-year benchmark security down three basis points, or 0.03 percentage point, to 3 percent. The 3.25 percent note that expires in June 2021 added 25 cents to C$102.10.
Bank of Canada
The loonie rallied on May 31, when the Bank of Canada added language about a potential increase in borrowing costs for the first time since September, saying it will raise rates “eventually” as the economy recovers.
The target for overnight loans between commercial banks remained at 1 percent, where it has been since September. The U.S., to which Canada ships about 75 percent of its exports, hasn’t changed rates since December 2008.
“The domestic side of the Canadian economy just doesn’t need emergency low interest rates, which is not something you can say with the U.S.,” said David Watt, senior currency strategist at Royal Bank of Canada’s RBC Capital Markets unit in Toronto. “The U.S. is our largest trading partner, and that’s probably one of the reasons why the Bank of Canada hasn’t raised the rates more.”
The loonie fell against the greenback on June 3 after U.S. Labor Department figures showed payrolls increased by 54,000 jobs in May after the addition of 232,000 in the previous month. The U.S. unemployment rate increased to 9.1 percent.
To contact the reporter on this story: Cecile Vannucci in New York at cvannucci1@bloomberg.net
The loonie, as the currency is known for the image of the aquatic bird on the C$1 coin, also dropped as oil, Canada’s biggest export, and stocks fell.
“Even though the number this morning was a little bit stronger, especially in the full-time component, I don’t think it changes what’s going on as far as everything else,” said David Love, a trader of interest-rate derivatives at Le Groupe Jitney Inc. in Montreal. “All our eyes are on the U.S. and what’s going on in Europe.”
The loonie depreciated 0.7 percent to 97.99 cents versus the U.S. currency at 5 p.m. in Toronto, from 97.30 cents yesterday. One Canadian dollar buys $1.0205.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index dropped 1.4 percent after adding 0.7 percent yesterday, its first gain after six consecutive days of losses. Crude oil for July delivery decreased 3 percent to $98.85 a barrel in New York after rising 1.2 percent yesterday.
“Canada’s ties to commodities certainly point to a weaker loonie, despite the stronger employment number this morning,” said Dean Popplewell, an analyst at the online currency-trading firm Oanda Corp. in Toronto.
Cross Trades
Among its most-traded counterparts, the Canadian dollar fell the most against the yen, dropping 0.8 percent. The loonie gained against the euro for a third consecutive day, advancing 0.4 percent to C$1.4059.
The loonie strengthened earlier today after a Statistics Canada report showed the nation’s unemployment rate fell to 7.4 percent last month from 7.6 percent in April.
Employers added 22,300 jobs last month after an increase of 58,300 in April. The median forecast of 27 economists in a Bloomberg News survey was for a gain of 20,000.
“From the economic side, I’m not seeing this as a huge jump, but it definitely is positive,” said C.J. Gavsie, managing director for foreign-exchange sales at Bank of Montreal’s BMO Capital Markets unit in Toronto.
Government bonds rose, pushing the yield on the 10-year benchmark security down three basis points, or 0.03 percentage point, to 3 percent. The 3.25 percent note that expires in June 2021 added 25 cents to C$102.10.
Bank of Canada
The loonie rallied on May 31, when the Bank of Canada added language about a potential increase in borrowing costs for the first time since September, saying it will raise rates “eventually” as the economy recovers.
The target for overnight loans between commercial banks remained at 1 percent, where it has been since September. The U.S., to which Canada ships about 75 percent of its exports, hasn’t changed rates since December 2008.
“The domestic side of the Canadian economy just doesn’t need emergency low interest rates, which is not something you can say with the U.S.,” said David Watt, senior currency strategist at Royal Bank of Canada’s RBC Capital Markets unit in Toronto. “The U.S. is our largest trading partner, and that’s probably one of the reasons why the Bank of Canada hasn’t raised the rates more.”
The loonie fell against the greenback on June 3 after U.S. Labor Department figures showed payrolls increased by 54,000 jobs in May after the addition of 232,000 in the previous month. The U.S. unemployment rate increased to 9.1 percent.
To contact the reporter on this story: Cecile Vannucci in New York at cvannucci1@bloomberg.net
Brent oil trading near $118, US crude stocks head lower
Brent oil trading near $118, US crude stocks head lower
Brent oil prices are trading back near $118 a barrel this morning after yesterday’s OPEC meeting boosted crude futures, whilst US oil stocks fell nearly 5 million barrels last week, adding fuel to high oil prices.
Latest Brent Oil Price
In London, Brent crude oil futures for July 2011 delivery was trading at $118.11, 07.50 GMT this morning on the ICE Futures Exchange after jumping one percent in trading on Wednesday.
In America, domestic crude oil stocks fell by 4.8 million barrels, according to the US EIA (Energy Information Administration) surpassing analysts’ expectations for a modist 300,000 barrel decline.
“What this means is that there will be less spare capacity to handle another unforeseen outage. The market will price in this risk premium, and the way they do that is by speculators coming in and buying it up.” said Tony Nunan, a risk manager with Tokyo based Mitsubishi Corp.
Meanwhile, Wednesday’s OPEC meeting also boosted Brent and WTI oil prices as member countries failed to agree any oil output increase.
Tuesday, June 7, 2011
FOREX: Dollar Posts a Tentative Bounce from Larger Decline as the S&P 500 Threatens Collapse
Dollar Posts a Tentative Bounce from Larger Decline as the S&P 500 Threatens Collapse
The economic docket for the opening trading day of the new week was light for the US dollar; but there aren’t many specific indicators that can meaningfully shift the currency’s bearing anyway. Far more important are the larger fundamental themes; and that is exactly what was nudging the greenback Monday. Looking to the Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index, the currency put in for a modest advance after more progressive declines on the previous Thursday and Friday. The nature of this move is corrective – as was the ‘positive’ performance through the first half of last week following the 2 percent drop that preceded it. What this tells us is the market is not yet ready to get behind the dollar’s recovery whether its counterpart be core currencies (which are still advancing against the dollar), fellow safe havens (also still gaining ground on the greenback) or commodity bloc members (who have weakened recently). Yet, there is reason to believe a bigger shift for the dollar is just beginning.
If we had to identify the most influential, potential fundamental driver for the dollar (for immediate impact as well as durability); it would undoubtedly be a shift in US rates. However, even the interest in the withdrawal of austerity and a slow return to rate hikes for the US traces back to risk appetite trends. A rise in rates moves the dollar up the yield spectrum – not necessarily putting it amongst the high yield group; but certainly removing it from the ideal funding currency category. Perhaps the earliest speculation of what market impact a stimulus withdrawal will have is hitting the capital markets first. Considering the US equities market is most dependent on stimulus at its precarious heights, it is reasonable to assume that investors will look to secure gains and avoid a deep correction in this particular area of the markets first. That said, the S&P 500 put in for a meaningful follow up to this past Friday’s close below an advancing trendline that had defined the market’s advance since QE2 speculation started to carry the market back in September. Now below 1,300, there is a distinct possibility that risk aversion itself is catalyzed and provides an immediate boost to the dollar’s fading safe haven appeal. If that is indeed the case, it would be reasonable to expect the Nikkei 225 to drop below 9,320 and the German DAX Index to drop through 7,000.
If there is a risk aversion move; the impact on the greenback will be quick but ultimately limited. Though the currency is still the world’s largest reserve currency; it does represent the same safe haven currency it was five years ago, one year ago or even six months ago. To sustain an advance, the foundation for a sentiment shift has to trace back to the impact the Fed’s eventual unwinding of stimulus will have global investor sentiment. Dallas Fed President Fisher reminded the market that there was still a hawkish voice amongst the policy ranks; but yields (Treasury and Libor) have yet to reflect a similar belief from the market. As we move closer to the QE2 expiry, this concern will gain more traction.
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — U.S. stocks extended losses into a fourth straight session Monday, with shares of banks, energy and airline stocks among those hardest hit, as Wall Street fretted about the economy.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJI -0.50% ended down 61.3 points, or 0.5%, to 12,089.96, with 23 of its 30 components losing ground. Decliners were led by Bank of America Corp. BAC -3.99% , off 4%, and J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. JPM -2.50% , down 2.5%.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index SPX -1.08% declined 13.99 points, or 1.1%, to 1,286.17, its first close below 1,300 since March 23, and break through some key support levels. It’s now more than 5% below its bull-market high reached on April 29, and also has fallen through some other low points.
“The intraday support was really at the February and April intraday lows around 1,293. Traders will be looking for a violation of this support to perhaps trigger some stop-loss selling,” said Marc Pado, U.S. market strategist at Cantor Fitzgerald.
After 1,293, the next target is 1,275, Pado said.
Elliot Spar, market strategist at Stifel Nicolaus & Co., cautioned that “when a well-advertised number is breached on the upside or downside, you always have to be on alert for a potential reversal.
“The market finds a way of humbling the most participants,” he said.
The S&P 500’s energy subsector fell 2.02%, following a drop in oil prices ahead of an OPEC meeting later this week, with crude futures off $1.21 to end at $99.01 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Read more about oil prices.
Financial stocks fell 2%, hit by worries about rising capital requirements as the economic outlook dims. Read more on energy stocks and read more on financial stocks.
The Nasdaq Composite Index COMP -1.11% closed down 30.22 points, or 1.1%, at 2,702.56.
Apple Inc. AAPL -0.34% , which accounts for about 7% of the index, slid 1.6%. Chief Executive Steve Jobs made a public appearance in San Francisco during the session to tout a music-streaming service Apple is counting on for growth. But the consumer computing company did not reveal any new hardware products, disappointing some observers. Read more about Apple, Steve Jobs.
For every stock that advanced, four fell on the New York Stock Exchange, where 959.2 million shares traded hands.
Airline stocks also weighed on the market, with shares of AMR Corp. AMR -3.69% and Delta Air Lines DAL -0.43% tumbling more than 3% after an industry group sharply trimmed its profit outlook for 2011, citing disasters in Japan, uncertainty in the Middle East and North Africa and the cost of fuel. Read more about airline sector.
Equities have declined for five consecutive weeks, the longest such slide for the Dow industrials since July 2004.
Kate Gibson is a reporter for MarketWatch, based in New York.
The economic docket for the opening trading day of the new week was light for the US dollar; but there aren’t many specific indicators that can meaningfully shift the currency’s bearing anyway. Far more important are the larger fundamental themes; and that is exactly what was nudging the greenback Monday. Looking to the Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index, the currency put in for a modest advance after more progressive declines on the previous Thursday and Friday. The nature of this move is corrective – as was the ‘positive’ performance through the first half of last week following the 2 percent drop that preceded it. What this tells us is the market is not yet ready to get behind the dollar’s recovery whether its counterpart be core currencies (which are still advancing against the dollar), fellow safe havens (also still gaining ground on the greenback) or commodity bloc members (who have weakened recently). Yet, there is reason to believe a bigger shift for the dollar is just beginning.
If we had to identify the most influential, potential fundamental driver for the dollar (for immediate impact as well as durability); it would undoubtedly be a shift in US rates. However, even the interest in the withdrawal of austerity and a slow return to rate hikes for the US traces back to risk appetite trends. A rise in rates moves the dollar up the yield spectrum – not necessarily putting it amongst the high yield group; but certainly removing it from the ideal funding currency category. Perhaps the earliest speculation of what market impact a stimulus withdrawal will have is hitting the capital markets first. Considering the US equities market is most dependent on stimulus at its precarious heights, it is reasonable to assume that investors will look to secure gains and avoid a deep correction in this particular area of the markets first. That said, the S&P 500 put in for a meaningful follow up to this past Friday’s close below an advancing trendline that had defined the market’s advance since QE2 speculation started to carry the market back in September. Now below 1,300, there is a distinct possibility that risk aversion itself is catalyzed and provides an immediate boost to the dollar’s fading safe haven appeal. If that is indeed the case, it would be reasonable to expect the Nikkei 225 to drop below 9,320 and the German DAX Index to drop through 7,000.
If there is a risk aversion move; the impact on the greenback will be quick but ultimately limited. Though the currency is still the world’s largest reserve currency; it does represent the same safe haven currency it was five years ago, one year ago or even six months ago. To sustain an advance, the foundation for a sentiment shift has to trace back to the impact the Fed’s eventual unwinding of stimulus will have global investor sentiment. Dallas Fed President Fisher reminded the market that there was still a hawkish voice amongst the policy ranks; but yields (Treasury and Libor) have yet to reflect a similar belief from the market. As we move closer to the QE2 expiry, this concern will gain more traction.
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — U.S. stocks extended losses into a fourth straight session Monday, with shares of banks, energy and airline stocks among those hardest hit, as Wall Street fretted about the economy.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJI -0.50% ended down 61.3 points, or 0.5%, to 12,089.96, with 23 of its 30 components losing ground. Decliners were led by Bank of America Corp. BAC -3.99% , off 4%, and J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. JPM -2.50% , down 2.5%.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index SPX -1.08% declined 13.99 points, or 1.1%, to 1,286.17, its first close below 1,300 since March 23, and break through some key support levels. It’s now more than 5% below its bull-market high reached on April 29, and also has fallen through some other low points.
“The intraday support was really at the February and April intraday lows around 1,293. Traders will be looking for a violation of this support to perhaps trigger some stop-loss selling,” said Marc Pado, U.S. market strategist at Cantor Fitzgerald.
After 1,293, the next target is 1,275, Pado said.
Elliot Spar, market strategist at Stifel Nicolaus & Co., cautioned that “when a well-advertised number is breached on the upside or downside, you always have to be on alert for a potential reversal.
“The market finds a way of humbling the most participants,” he said.
The S&P 500’s energy subsector fell 2.02%, following a drop in oil prices ahead of an OPEC meeting later this week, with crude futures off $1.21 to end at $99.01 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Read more about oil prices.
Financial stocks fell 2%, hit by worries about rising capital requirements as the economic outlook dims. Read more on energy stocks and read more on financial stocks.
The Nasdaq Composite Index COMP -1.11% closed down 30.22 points, or 1.1%, at 2,702.56.
Apple Inc. AAPL -0.34% , which accounts for about 7% of the index, slid 1.6%. Chief Executive Steve Jobs made a public appearance in San Francisco during the session to tout a music-streaming service Apple is counting on for growth. But the consumer computing company did not reveal any new hardware products, disappointing some observers. Read more about Apple, Steve Jobs.
For every stock that advanced, four fell on the New York Stock Exchange, where 959.2 million shares traded hands.
Airline stocks also weighed on the market, with shares of AMR Corp. AMR -3.69% and Delta Air Lines DAL -0.43% tumbling more than 3% after an industry group sharply trimmed its profit outlook for 2011, citing disasters in Japan, uncertainty in the Middle East and North Africa and the cost of fuel. Read more about airline sector.
Equities have declined for five consecutive weeks, the longest such slide for the Dow industrials since July 2004.
Kate Gibson is a reporter for MarketWatch, based in New York.
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